Bad Stats, Good Stats, Jake Paul & Skin in the Game, Lance Palmer & Insults

When bad stats are good, skin in the game, PFL stats and more.

I didn’t watch any combat sports last weekend because I was busy, and it sure seems like I made a good call.

Here are some words about this week, and I promise I only write the words “Jake Paul” four times (five, including that one). And even that’s not really about him.

Jorge Masvidal’s Bad Stats Were… Kind of Good

Jorge Masvidal was taken down 5 times by Kamaru Usman.

He allowed 16 minutes 38 seconds of control time.

He was out-landed by 28 significant strikes.

Those stats are not very good. But what if we compare them to the rest of Usman’s fights?

Masvidal’s 69% takedown defense rate in that fight was the 2nd highest anyone has ever recorded against Usman (the highest was 75% from Sean Strickland).

The 66.5% control rate was the 3rd lowest Usman has posted in any of the 9 UFC fights in which he attempted at least 1 takedown.

That differential of +1.12 significant strikes per minute was the 2nd lowest Usman has ever recorded in a single fight.

Masvidal got dominated in that first fight, but in the context of Usman’s entire career, he actually fared pretty well.

Lance Palmer …

… has landed 570 ground strikes in the PFL. Nobody else in PFL history has landed that many strikes overall.

His strike differential of +388 is the second highest in PFL history, trailing Ali Isayev (+423) and sitting one spot ahead of Kayla Harrison (+326).

Anthony Smith and Survivorship Bias

Usually, “counting stats” (things like career takedowns or career significant strikes) landed do a decent job of tracking skill. To be in the UFC long enough to land 90 takedowns (GSP’s record), you need to be pretty good to start with.

But we don’t see the effect work the same way on negative stats.

The worst fighter in UFC history won’t have the most significant strikes absorbed, the most takedowns allowed, or even the most losses. They just won’t last long enough to reach those totals.

That’s what makes the “leaderboard” for worst significant strike differential interesting.

The lowest differential in UFC history (-546, or 546 more significant strikes absorbed than landed) belongs to Roy Nelson. The second lowest (-543, and nobody else is below even -400) belongs to Joe Lauzon. The sixth lowest (-267) belongs to Anthony Smith.

The common thread here? These guys are all above-average finishers — with the ability to win a fight they were otherwise losing.

Don’t get me wrong — absorbing over 250 more significant strikes than you have landed is not good. But simply being able to survive in the UFC long enough to amass such a large negative differential is paradoxically also a positive indicator.

Karl Roberson / Kevin Holland

This situation may not be as extreme, but Karl Roberson has some Kevin Holland to his game.

When Roberson’s opponents have attempted fewer than 3 takedowns, he’s 3-0 with a +30 significant strike differential and 1.8% control rate allowed.

When they attempt at least 3 takedowns, he’s 1-3 (split decision win) with a +1 significant strike differential and 55% control rate allowed.

Brendan Allen should probably attempt some takedowns.

Jake Paul, Robert Whittaker, Fighter Pay and Skin in the Game

I don’t watch boxing, and I especially don’t watch Jake Paul boxing Ben Askren. So I’ll spare you my takes on anything boxing related here.

Something that was going viral last week, however, was comparing Paul and Askren’s pay to Robert Whittaker’s for his UFC main event on the same night.

The general consensus in the MMA world being “this is absurd, Robert Whittaker should make more than Jake Paul.”

And the general counter is typically “well Jake Paul is going to bring in a lot more money, so he should be paid accordingly.”

But I don’t even think the counter is really that complicated.

If you think Robert Whittaker should be paid more, and that paying him more is a good business move, then there’s a great niche in the MMA world for you to start up a promotion. Pay the fighters what you think they’re worth, and clean up.

Personally, I have never run an MMA promotion. I’ve read lots about MMA. I’ve watched lots of MMA. I even have plenty of opinions about MMA. But my personal opinion on fighter pay is 100% meaningless because I’m never going to have any skin in the game. I’m never going to be negotiating for a fighter or for a promotion. It’s incredibly easy to float out an opinion with no investment in whether it tracks in reality or not. But without any skin in the game, it doesn’t hold much weight.

And there are people with skin in the game.

MMA fighters risking (and losing) their UFC careers trying to start a fighter’s union have skin in the game. Promoters who, like all businesses, are basing pay on maximizing profit have skin in the game. Promoters outside the UFC who are trying to lure UFC fighters by offering more money to high-profile fighters have skin in the game. Fighters who choose to sign with one promotion or another have skin in the game.

Corey Anderson just said he’s made twice as much in just two Bellator fights than he did in his entire UFC career.

I’m thrilled that Corey Anderson (one of the first fighters to share my work, so always holding a soft spot in my heart) is getting paid so much.

But if that option is out there, and Robert Whittaker (who is much more personally invested in his own pay than anyone musing on Twitter) has opted to stay with the UFC at a lower pay than he could get elsewhere, where does the “should” in “should get paid more” come from?

Jessica Andrade by decision …

… is available at +900, if super long-shot prop bets are your kind of thing.

You’re Insulting Your Favorite Fighter

I don’t get into the weeds on many typical Twitter/Instagram arguments in the MMA world. But by posting as much as I do, I’m exposed to plenty of it in my comment sections.

One of the most common things I’ve seen all week is any post about Usman-Masvidal immediately drawing the ire of Masvidal fans.

Fair, the two are (kind of) rivals, and of course any fan would be bitter their favorite fighter lost and excited for them to avenge the loss.

But the way I’ve seen it from Masvidal fans really just ends up with them insulting their favorite fighter.

“All Usman did was stomp on his toes.” “Usman sucks.” “Usman is the most overrated fighter in the UFC.”

These would be fine insults if not for the fact that he beat Masvidal and it wasn’t close. If Usman sucks, wouldn’t the fighter who lost 49-46 to him by definition suck even more? If Usman wasn’t doing anything effective and was just stomping on his toes, wouldn’t it be embarrassing to lose to a fighter who wasn’t doing anything?

This isn’t unique to Masvidal/Usman, either. You see it in any big rivalry between fans. McGregor fans saying that Khabib sucks are saying their favorite fighter got destroyed by someone who sucks.

I don’t even have some enlightening insight here, just a strange phenomenon that I felt like talking about.